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Working Papers

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Economic Analysis and Policy

This paper examines the experience of a set of countries that performed relatively well in coping with the COVID-19 crisis. The goal is to garner insights and lessons that can help countries that may experience initial or second-round outbreaks of the pandemic in the future. The paper finds healthcare, social protection, and overall governance systems as the three main determinants of COVID-19 strategies and their success. Though unique country-specific factors played an important role in confronting the pandemic in some countries, their role was generally mediated through one or the other of the above three main determinants. The findings of the paper suggest that establishing universal…

Economic Analysis and Policy

The COVID-19 pandemic is entailing huge costs worldwide. To help developing countries formulate policy responses to minimize negative impacts of the COVID-19, possible size and duration of the shocks on most vulnerable countries, i.e., least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and their resilience to overcome the shocks need to be assessed. This paper quantitatively examines possible paths of LDCs and SIDS recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, using an autoregressive model of income growth and a panel regression model of external demand for LDCs and SIDS. Evidence from the experience of the 2007-08 global financial crisis suggests that the…

Economic Analysis and Policy

While migration and population displacement has always been part of the human experience, the context within which it occurs today has materially changed. Migration has become an important part of economic globalization and closely related to countries´ development process. Conflicts, poverty, natural disasters and climate events are also forcing people to migrate in an ever-increasing number. For many low-income countries with large number of internally-displaced people, on the other hand, the high economic costs are making it more difficult for them to invest in SDG implementation. Developing countries also host most of the externally-displaced people at high economic costs, which…

Social Development

In light of the emphasis on “inclusion” in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this paper contends that social exclusion and inclusion are context-dependent concepts in at least three senses. First, the ideal of an inclusive society varies by country and by region. Second, different places have different histories, cultures, institutions and social structures. These influence the economic, social and political dimensions of social exclusion and the interplay among them. Third, context – where one lives – shapes access to resources and opportunities. Social inclusion is thus spatially uneven. The paper also shows how context matters, identifying some of the mechanisms by which…

Sustainable Development

This paper synthesizes the evidence of a negative correlation between income inequality and environmental quality. It shows that inequality exerts adverse impact on environmental outcomes through several channels, including the household, community, national, and international channels. These channels however overlap with one another and can thus reinforce the impact of inequality. Other dimensions of inequality, in particular gender inequality, also impact environmental quality negatively. The concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is not that helpful in explaining the negative correlation between inequality and environmental quality. The findings of the paper suggest that…

Economic Analysis and Policy

This paper revisits the earlier assessments of the Palma Proposition and the ‘Palma Ratio’. The former is a proposition that currently changes in income or consumption inequality are (almost) exclusively due to changes in the share of the richest 10 per cent and poorest 40 per cent because the ‘middle’ group between the richest and poorest always capture approximately 50 per cent of gross national income (GNI). The latter is a measure of income or consumption concentration based on the above-mentioned proposition and calculated as the GNI capture of the richest 10 per cent divided by that of the poorest 40 per cent. In this paper we do the following: note the use already being made of…

Economic Analysis and Policy

China has departed from the East Asian model of development by letting inequality to rise to a high level, which is contributing to China’s current problems of macroeconomic imbalance, declining efficiency of capital, and rising social tensions. If inequality persists, China may get caught in the “inequality-trap,” which may then lead it to the “middle income trap (MIT).” Fortunately, China still has the levers to pull to reduce inequality and avoid MIT. Measures along both the “wage route” and the “redistributive route” can be adopted for this purpose. In addition, China may pursue the “cooperative route” to more equitable distribution.

Economic Analysis and Policy

Analyses of redistributive policies often focus on income flows to examine the nexus between redistribution and economic growth. With strengthening signs of growing economic inequality in many countries, an increasing number of economists investigated the existence and nature of a hypothetical trade-off between economic growth and equity. As signs of unsustainable development are strengthening more generally, this paper proposes to look at the broader nexus between redistribution, equity and sustainable development, emphasizing its social and environmental dimensions. It does so by first proposing an analytical framework defining the role of redistributive policies in shaping the private…