Working Papers

Economic diversification is very relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. That need has been recognized in key internationally agreed development goals. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylized facts about the pattern of diversification of economies, but the development of explanations for those patterns in general has been only loosely associated with economic theory on growth, trade, technology change and structural transformation. Making that connection is relevant because it could inform policymakers in developing countries in designing and implementing policies for promoting diversification. This paper presents…

In light of the emphasis on “inclusion” in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this paper contends that social exclusion and inclusion are context-dependent concepts in at least three senses. First, the ideal of an inclusive society varies by country and by region. Second, different places have different histories, cultures, institutions and social structures. These influence the economic, social and political dimensions of social exclusion and the interplay among them. Third, context – where one lives – shapes access to resources and opportunities. Social inclusion is thus spatially uneven. The paper also shows how context matters, identifying some of the mechanisms by which…

This paper synthesizes the evidence of a negative correlation between income inequality and environmental quality. It shows that inequality exerts adverse impact on environmental outcomes through several channels, including the household, community, national, and international channels. These channels however overlap with one another and can thus reinforce the impact of inequality. Other dimensions of inequality, in particular gender inequality, also impact environmental quality negatively. The concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is not that helpful in explaining the negative correlation between inequality and environmental quality. The findings of the paper suggest that…

This paper revisits the earlier assessments of the Palma Proposition and the ‘Palma Ratio’. The former is a proposition that currently changes in income or consumption inequality are (almost) exclusively due to changes in the share of the richest 10 per cent and poorest 40 per cent because the ‘middle’ group between the richest and poorest always capture approximately 50 per cent of gross national income (GNI). The latter is a measure of income or consumption concentration based on the above-mentioned proposition and calculated as the GNI capture of the richest 10 per cent divided by that of the poorest 40 per cent. In this paper we do the following: note the use already being made of…

China has departed from the East Asian model of development by letting inequality to rise to a high level, which is contributing to China’s current problems of macroeconomic imbalance, declining efficiency of capital, and rising social tensions. If inequality persists, China may get caught in the “inequality-trap,” which may then lead it to the “middle income trap (MIT).” Fortunately, China still has the levers to pull to reduce inequality and avoid MIT. Measures along both the “wage route” and the “redistributive route” can be adopted for this purpose. In addition, China may pursue the “cooperative route” to more equitable distribution.

Analyses of redistributive policies often focus on income flows to examine the nexus between redistribution and economic growth. With strengthening signs of growing economic inequality in many countries, an increasing number of economists investigated the existence and nature of a hypothetical trade-off between economic growth and equity. As signs of unsustainable development are strengthening more generally, this paper proposes to look at the broader nexus between redistribution, equity and sustainable development, emphasizing its social and environmental dimensions. It does so by first proposing an analytical framework defining the role of redistributive policies in shaping the private…

The paper discusses the progress of Indian economy and its policies since the broad-based structural reforms initiated in 1991 with a special focus on the recent downturn following the global financial crisis. The paper is structured into two parts: first part discusses the major economic and social achievements of India since 1991, it identifies the causes of the recent downturn, and the policy responses to revive the economy. In the second part, the paper outlines the major challenges India is facing and the policies and reforms that need to be implement to achieve sustainable development.

Implementation of the Agenda 21 bifurcated into two tracks. While the economic and social development agenda gelled into the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the environmental protection agenda moved along a different track, represented by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), etc. This bifurcation also led to very different “domain configurations.” While there were some advantages of this bifurcation, it led to a conflict between the human development and the environmental goals. This paper presents a framework for bringing environment and development together in the UN post-2015 agenda.

The new role that middle-income countries (MICs) play in the global landscape obliges international community to review the configuration of the development cooperation system. On the one hand, MICs still face considerable structural deficits that affect their process of development; on the other, international community needs MICs to participate more intensively in the international agenda. Development cooperation can support both purposes, although for that to happen, substantial changes are required in traditional approaches and procedures of current international aid. This paper analyses these subjects with the objective of helping decision-makers come to good decisions

The paper reviews the sluggish growth and inclusive developments of the Brazilian economy in the last decade. The first section analyzes the macroeconomic performance pointing export growth as the engine of growth. The second evaluates social policies and their relationship with the improvements in the labor market. The third examines Brazilian policy reactions to the global crisis that managed to recover consumption but failed to sustain investment and growth. The discussion of challenges for a sustainable development concludes the paper. Investment in education and infrastructure are consensual policy advices but there are plenty of disagreements and controversies with regards to…

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures adopted in developed countries (the US, UK, Euro Area and Japan) on developing economies (Brazil, China, India and Russia). First, we analyse the domestic and cross-border financial market impact of unconventional monetary policy announcements by central banks, using a series of event studies. We find that quantitative easing (QE) by the FED, BoE, ECB and BoJ influenced long term yields, equity prices, and possibly exchange rates both in the developed and developing countries (for example we find that QE resulted in decreases in long term yields by about 125 basis points in the US, about 100…

This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal austerity. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation measures for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978-2009, we find that fiscal consolidation episodes have typically led to a significant and long-lasting increase in inequality. Tax-based consolidation episodes tend to have a larger and more persistent effect on inequality than spendingbased consolidations. The evidence also shows that while fiscal consolidations have typically led to a fall in wage income, they have not had a significant effect on profit and rent income.