Working Papers

This paper assesses the effects of combining fiscal austerity with flexibilization policies aimed at reducing labour costs and increasing competitiveness. Core to our analysis is a global perspective where the aggregation problem is fully taken into account. We derive a stylized macroeconomic framework of distributive and demand dynamics. We show that even in export-led regimes, after considering global feedbacks, flexibilization policies do not lead to higher income and employment. Rather, the end result is contractionary. Over time, the world economy is essentially wage-led and responds positively to coordinated Keynesian stimuli.

This paper examines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) is disproportionately allocated to countries that need to make the most progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We expect MDG-sensitive distribution of foreign aid – or a good donor-recipient match – to be guided by the principles of the Global Partnership for Development. When we apply the MDG-sensitivity criteria for aid allocation, the results indicate that ODA allocation since the Millennium Declaration has become more MDG-sensitive – ODA is given to countries that need it most. While such trends in aid disbursements are commendable, total aid flows, however, fall short of promised levels.

Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward…

Effective income and wealth taxation is a central development cooperation issue because taxation of foreign companies and their own residents’ overseas assets remain problematic for developing countries. Estimates of the scale of undeclared expatriated profits and overseas assets, and thus the income tax lost to developing countries, are large relative to other forms of innovative development finance. The international cooperation required involves information exchange between jurisdictions to allow the full application of existing tax codes. This expanded global tax base would be a more sustainable and equitable system than the traditional donor-recipient relationship.

This paper assesses the effectiveness of non-tariff special and differential treatment (SDT) offered exclusively to the least developed countries by WTO agreements. SDTs are inefficient in at least four aspects. First, they are not easily accessed as they require a certain level of institutional capacity. Second, when accessible they either need to be complemented by other policy interventions or are offset by measures taken elsewhere. Third, some do not respond to LDC needs. Fourth, many are too vaguely defined to provide concrete benefits. Effectiveness can be enhanced by increased LDC ownership and improved policy coherence by trading and development partners.

A fundamental shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is taking place. This shift opens a space for implementing policies that promote growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. In this paper, policies for post-conflict and resource-rich economies are outlined. Fiscal policy would focus on revenue mobilization, scaling-up public investment, and preventing over-heating. Monetary policies would revive the financial sector, prevent inflationary pressures and stimulate private sector investment. Exchange rate policies should focus on achieving slow depreciation and maintaining international competitiveness. These policies should not be considered in isolation from each other, but in…

This paper examines the current food crises, the projected effect of climate change, the vulnerabilities created by regional concentrations of food production, imports and exports, and the significant role of women as food producers, consumers and family food managers. Bridging productivity differentials between male and female farmers, by helping women overcome production constraints, would significantly increase agricultural output. This becomes an imperative, given the feminization of agriculture. Institutionally, a group approach to farming would help women and other small holders enhance their access to land and inputs, benefit from economies of scale, and increase their bargaining…

This paper examines data on economic growth and various social indicators for 193 countries over the past 50 years, divided into three periods: 1960-1980, 1980-2000, and 2000-2010. The paper finds that after a sharp slowdown in economic growth and in progress on social indicators during the second (1980-2000) period, there has been a recovery on both economic growth and, for many countries, a rebound in progress on social indicators (including life expectancy, adult, infant, and child mortality, and education) during the past decade. The paper discusses some of the economic and policy changes that might explain the slowdown and rebound.

With bank-level data from 81 developing countries, the paper shows that increased foreign bank presence is associated with increased reliance on non-deposit based funding, which leads to higher interest rate spreads, less credit to the private sector, and higher volatility in bank loans. Foreign bank entry significantly reduces domestic banks’ share of deposits while foreign banks typically allocate less of their assets and deposits to lending. As domestic banks lose their deposit base, they rely on non-deposit based funding, but its higher costs and uncertainty force domestic banks to reduce their lending activities.

Recent calls for more intense debate on and reforms to the international monetary system imply that the current system is unable to respond appropriately and adequately to challenges that have appeared, or become more acute, in recent years. This paper focuses on four such challenges: ensuring an orderly exit from global imbalances, facilitating more complementary adjustments between surplus and deficit countries without recessionary impacts, better supporting international trade by reducing currency volatility and better providing development and climate finance. After describing them, it proposes reforms to enable the international monetary system to better respond to these challenges…

This paper uses data from Jordan’s 2007 Demographic and Health Survey to reassess the main determinants of child mortality in this middle-income country. Running different logit estimations to allow for different time windows and sets of variables, we find that behavioural factors have gained importance, compared to the household and community factors that were found to be important in earlier studies. We conclude that once a country has passed a certain threshold in household income, education and access to health care and safe drinking water, policies targeting behavioural changes are the most promising for achieving further reductions in mortality rates.

This paper critically reviews the impact of globalization on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since the early 1980s. The large gains expected from opening up to international economic forces have, to date, been limited, and there have been significant adverse consequences. Foreign direct investment in SSA has been largely confined to resource—especially mineral—extraction, even as continuing capital flight has reduced financial resources available for productive investments. Premature trade liberalization has further undermined prospects for the economic development of SSA as productive capacities in many sectors are not sufficiently competitive to take advantage of any improvements in market…