Working Papers

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures adopted in developed countries (the US, UK, Euro Area and Japan) on developing economies (Brazil, China, India and Russia). First, we analyse the domestic and cross-border financial market impact of unconventional monetary policy announcements by central banks, using a series of event studies. We find that quantitative easing (QE) by the FED, BoE, ECB and BoJ influenced long term yields, equity prices, and possibly exchange rates both in the developed and developing countries (for example we find that QE resulted in decreases in long term yields by about 125 basis points in the US, about 100…

This paper examines the distributional effects of fiscal austerity. Using episodes of fiscal consolidation measures for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the period 1978-2009, we find that fiscal consolidation episodes have typically led to a significant and long-lasting increase in inequality. Tax-based consolidation episodes tend to have a larger and more persistent effect on inequality than spendingbased consolidations. The evidence also shows that while fiscal consolidations have typically led to a fall in wage income, they have not had a significant effect on profit and rent income.

This paper argues that SDRs should become a more relevant instrument of international monetary cooperation. This requires transforming them into a pure reserve asset and the IMF into a fully SDR-funded institution. SDRs would then be issued counter-cyclically and treated as deposits of countries in the IMF, which can in turn lend to countries. This approach would correct basic deficiencies of the current global monetary system. Complementary reforms include a substitution account for an orderly and smooth transition from major reserve currencies to SDRs, and the issuance of SDR-denominated bonds as an alternative to other major short-term assets.

This paper assesses the effects of combining fiscal austerity with flexibilization policies aimed at reducing labour costs and increasing competitiveness. Core to our analysis is a global perspective where the aggregation problem is fully taken into account. We derive a stylized macroeconomic framework of distributive and demand dynamics. We show that even in export-led regimes, after considering global feedbacks, flexibilization policies do not lead to higher income and employment. Rather, the end result is contractionary. Over time, the world economy is essentially wage-led and responds positively to coordinated Keynesian stimuli.

Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super-cycles during 1865-2009 ranging between 30-40 years with amplitudes 20-40 percent higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. The mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than for the previous cycle, supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Tropical agriculture experienced the strongest and steepest long-term downward trend through the twentieth century, followed by non-tropical agriculture and metals, while real oil prices experienced a long-term upward…

This paper assesses the effectiveness of non-tariff special and differential treatment (SDT) offered exclusively to the least developed countries by WTO agreements. SDTs are inefficient in at least four aspects. First, they are not easily accessed as they require a certain level of institutional capacity. Second, when accessible they either need to be complemented by other policy interventions or are offset by measures taken elsewhere. Third, some do not respond to LDC needs. Fourth, many are too vaguely defined to provide concrete benefits. Effectiveness can be enhanced by increased LDC ownership and improved policy coherence by trading and development partners.

A fundamental shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is taking place. This shift opens a space for implementing policies that promote growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. In this paper, policies for post-conflict and resource-rich economies are outlined. Fiscal policy would focus on revenue mobilization, scaling-up public investment, and preventing over-heating. Monetary policies would revive the financial sector, prevent inflationary pressures and stimulate private sector investment. Exchange rate policies should focus on achieving slow depreciation and maintaining international competitiveness. These policies should not be considered in isolation from each other, but in…

With bank-level data from 81 developing countries, the paper shows that increased foreign bank presence is associated with increased reliance on non-deposit based funding, which leads to higher interest rate spreads, less credit to the private sector, and higher volatility in bank loans. Foreign bank entry significantly reduces domestic banks’ share of deposits while foreign banks typically allocate less of their assets and deposits to lending. As domestic banks lose their deposit base, they rely on non-deposit based funding, but its higher costs and uncertainty force domestic banks to reduce their lending activities.

Recent calls for more intense debate on and reforms to the international monetary system imply that the current system is unable to respond appropriately and adequately to challenges that have appeared, or become more acute, in recent years. This paper focuses on four such challenges: ensuring an orderly exit from global imbalances, facilitating more complementary adjustments between surplus and deficit countries without recessionary impacts, better supporting international trade by reducing currency volatility and better providing development and climate finance. After describing them, it proposes reforms to enable the international monetary system to better respond to these challenges…

This paper uses data from Jordan’s 2007 Demographic and Health Survey to reassess the main determinants of child mortality in this middle-income country. Running different logit estimations to allow for different time windows and sets of variables, we find that behavioural factors have gained importance, compared to the household and community factors that were found to be important in earlier studies. We conclude that once a country has passed a certain threshold in household income, education and access to health care and safe drinking water, policies targeting behavioural changes are the most promising for achieving further reductions in mortality rates.

This paper critically reviews the impact of globalization on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since the early 1980s. The large gains expected from opening up to international economic forces have, to date, been limited, and there have been significant adverse consequences. Foreign direct investment in SSA has been largely confined to resource—especially mineral—extraction, even as continuing capital flight has reduced financial resources available for productive investments. Premature trade liberalization has further undermined prospects for the economic development of SSA as productive capacities in many sectors are not sufficiently competitive to take advantage of any improvements in market…

This paper presents a simple theoretical framework to explain variations in income inequality over time and between countries. It also analyses the factors responsible for the widespread rise in inequality during the neo-liberal reforms of 1980-2000 in the fields of trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and capital flows, and the rises in migration. Finally, it compares the decline in inequality observed in most of Latin America over 2000-2008 with the steady increase of inequality in many European transition economies during this period despite their return to robust growth. The paper argues that such divergence is explained by differences in policies.