Growing or shrinking – what do the latest trends tell us about the global population?

Two years ago, our world marked the milestone of 8 billion people living on this planet. What has happened since then? How many lives are expected to see the light of day? Where do people settle down and how long do they live? Ahead the World Population Prospects 2024 launch on 11 July, we asked UN DESA’s Guangyu Zhang what we can anticipate from the new report.

How do we track the world’s population, and which demographic trends are we closely following?

“How many people are in the world today and in the future? Where are they living? How many children does a woman have in Ethiopia, or in China in the absence of the one-child policy? How many young people migrated to Saudi Arabia for a job each year, or what is the share of older persons in the population of the United States? How long will a baby boy live if he is born in Fiji today? 

Many people often ask questions or do a Google search about the world’s population and would like to have authoritative answers.

Since 1951, UN DESA’s Population Division has produced official global population estimates and projections, published in the World Population Prospects series every two to three years. The upcoming World Population Prospects 2024 (WPP2024) will be the twenty-eighth edition, providing the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to 2100.

To create these estimates, data from over 1,700 censuses and nearly 2,900 surveys conducted between 1950 and 2023 were used. Demographers evaluate this data and consult international experts to ensure accuracy. WPP data are crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on this data. The data are also used by media, researchers, businesses, civil society organizations, and the public for various purposes, including policy making.”

Not so long ago, our world marked the milestone of 8 billion people living on this planet. What are the implications for people and planet? What would we need to do to live sustainably?

“The global population reaches nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and yes, the world’s population is expected to continue to grow until the latter half of this century. However, most population growth will occur in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, unlike the slow growth or decline of populations in high-income countries. This population growth will increase demand for resources, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and, combined with poorly managed urbanization and rising living standards, it will worsen environmental impacts.

Climate change, a major challenge, affects these countries the most, where many rely on agriculture and food insecurity is prevalent. It's crucial to reform global food production to feed the growing population without harming the environment.

Wealthy countries, with their high resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, have a moral and legal duty to support poorer countries financially and technically to tackle the climate crisis and promote sustainable economic growth.”

What can we expect from the forthcoming World Population Prospects report?

“The forthcoming UN's World Population Prospects report will provide revised and updated comprehensive data and analysis on global population trends. It tracks growth rates and peaks, the change of age structures and offers projections for future population sizes. 

Key findings include declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, and the ageing of the global population. The report also highlights regional differences, with some areas experiencing rapid population growth and others facing population decline. These insights are crucial for policymakers to plan for sustainable development, resource allocation, and public services.”

For more information: UN DESA’s Population Division

Follow the launch of the World Population Prospects 2024 live via UN Web TV on 11 July.

Photo credit: UN DESA