Working Papers

The pandemic-induced global economic crisis has contributed to the re-emergence of sovereign default risk, especially for emerging and developing economies, and has directed attention to the impact of the institutions that are tasked with attempting to predict defaults: the international credit rating agencies. This paper describes four main challenges posed by credit rating agencies, especially from a developing and emerging economies perspective: potential bias in ratings, pro-cyclicality of ratings, governance issues and conflicts of interest, and incorporation of climate risk. It concludes with potential policy solutions addressed at ratings agencies, regulators, and policy makers.…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most universal health and socio-economic crisis in recent history. However, the magnitude of the economic damage has differed widely; some countries were hit particularly hard, while others have managed to weather the storm much better. In this paper, we use cross-country regression analysis to identify factors that help explain the differences in the growth impact of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings underscore the critical role of balancing health and economic concerns in managing the pandemic as both a country’s exposure to the coronavirus and the stringency of containment measures are strongly correlated with its growth performance. In addition,…

In Article 25 (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the United Nations recognized in 1948 the basic human right to “security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond ... control.” This paper examines how economic insecurity is related to, yet different from, poverty and inequality, why it matters for human well-being and how it has been changing in different countries around the world in recent years. The paper concludes with discussion of how economic insecurity has been and will be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic/recession.

In light of a cautious emphasis given to public-private partnerships (PPPs) as a mechanism to finance infrastructure projects and highlighting the need for capacity building and knowledge sharing at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis Ababa, this paper reviews the extant literature on the subject and identifies areas requiring better understanding and institutional innovation for ensuring value for money, minimizing contingent fiscal risk and improving accountability. An institutional capacity to create, manage and evaluate PPPs is essential to ensure that they become an effective instrument of delivery of important services, such as infrastructure.…

This paper discusses Uzbekistan’s recent experience with structural shifts and industrial policy and the larger implications for existing theories of industrial policy. The paper has a particular focus on various industry policy instruments.

Two major hypotheses are discussed: (1) the hypothesis of Haussmann, Hwang and Rodrik (the more technologically sophisticated the export structure, the better for growth) and (2) the hypothesis of Justin Yifu Lin (export specialization should build on existing comparative advantages and not jump over the necessary technological stages).

This paper assesses the effectiveness of non-tariff special and differential treatment (SDT) offered exclusively to the least developed countries by WTO agreements. SDTs are inefficient in at least four aspects. First, they are not easily accessed as they require a certain level of institutional capacity. Second, when accessible they either need to be complemented by other policy interventions or are offset by measures taken elsewhere. Third, some do not respond to LDC needs. Fourth, many are too vaguely defined to provide concrete benefits. Effectiveness can be enhanced by increased LDC ownership and improved policy coherence by trading and development partners.

A fundamental shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is taking place. This shift opens a space for implementing policies that promote growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. In this paper, policies for post-conflict and resource-rich economies are outlined. Fiscal policy would focus on revenue mobilization, scaling-up public investment, and preventing over-heating. Monetary policies would revive the financial sector, prevent inflationary pressures and stimulate private sector investment. Exchange rate policies should focus on achieving slow depreciation and maintaining international competitiveness. These policies should not be considered in isolation from each other, but in…

This paper examines the current food crises, the projected effect of climate change, the vulnerabilities created by regional concentrations of food production, imports and exports, and the significant role of women as food producers, consumers and family food managers. Bridging productivity differentials between male and female farmers, by helping women overcome production constraints, would significantly increase agricultural output. This becomes an imperative, given the feminization of agriculture. Institutionally, a group approach to farming would help women and other small holders enhance their access to land and inputs, benefit from economies of scale, and increase their bargaining…

This paper examines data on economic growth and various social indicators for 193 countries over the past 50 years, divided into three periods: 1960-1980, 1980-2000, and 2000-2010. The paper finds that after a sharp slowdown in economic growth and in progress on social indicators during the second (1980-2000) period, there has been a recovery on both economic growth and, for many countries, a rebound in progress on social indicators (including life expectancy, adult, infant, and child mortality, and education) during the past decade. The paper discusses some of the economic and policy changes that might explain the slowdown and rebound.

With bank-level data from 81 developing countries, the paper shows that increased foreign bank presence is associated with increased reliance on non-deposit based funding, which leads to higher interest rate spreads, less credit to the private sector, and higher volatility in bank loans. Foreign bank entry significantly reduces domestic banks’ share of deposits while foreign banks typically allocate less of their assets and deposits to lending. As domestic banks lose their deposit base, they rely on non-deposit based funding, but its higher costs and uncertainty force domestic banks to reduce their lending activities.

Recent calls for more intense debate on and reforms to the international monetary system imply that the current system is unable to respond appropriately and adequately to challenges that have appeared, or become more acute, in recent years. This paper focuses on four such challenges: ensuring an orderly exit from global imbalances, facilitating more complementary adjustments between surplus and deficit countries without recessionary impacts, better supporting international trade by reducing currency volatility and better providing development and climate finance. After describing them, it proposes reforms to enable the international monetary system to better respond to these challenges…

This paper uses data from Jordan’s 2007 Demographic and Health Survey to reassess the main determinants of child mortality in this middle-income country. Running different logit estimations to allow for different time windows and sets of variables, we find that behavioural factors have gained importance, compared to the household and community factors that were found to be important in earlier studies. We conclude that once a country has passed a certain threshold in household income, education and access to health care and safe drinking water, policies targeting behavioural changes are the most promising for achieving further reductions in mortality rates.