Working Papers

We provide a history of past periods of rapid technological change starting from the Industrial Revolution continuing up to today. We find that it takes decades for technological breakthroughs to make a difference to the aggregate economy. The reason for this delay is that to realize the value of these breakthroughs requires complementary investments. Second, for good or for bad, government has played an important role in facilitating these transitions through both investments in physical infrastructure and legal reforms. We also emphasize that because technological breakthroughs are difficult to predict, the responses of governments are necessarily improvisational.

To achieve the greatest possible human welfare, the Stockholm Environment Institute’s Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model calls for rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to keep cumulative 21st century carbon dioxide emissions below 2,000 Gt. We explain why as some other models claim very slow emission reductions are best. We make three changes to the basic assumptions of the well-known DICE model to include the most recent estimates of economic damages from climate change, express greater concern about the well-being of future generations, and expect rich countries to invest in emissions and poverty reduction in poorer countries.