New population trends: a force for good

As the population of the world approaches 8 billion, the growth rate continues to slow. Once fertility begins to fall, the changing age distribution becomes a positive force for economic growth, if labour markets successfully absorb the rapidly growing number of people in the working age ranges. During this stage of the demographic transition, population dynamics create the conditions for accelerated increase in income and consumption per capita, often referred to as the first demographic dividend.

The first demographic dividend gives way to a second demographic dividend as populations shift towards older ages. Population ageing can lead to increased capital intensity in the economy. This may in turn be enhanced further if individuals who anticipate longer lives, and therefore more time in retirement, respond by increasing their asset accumulation accordingly.

A decline in fertility also facilitates increasing investments in human capital. Women may encounter better economic opportunities as they redirect more of their time to education and paid work. Smaller families often invest more per child in health and education and these investments also contribute to achieving sustained and inclusive economic growth.

But higher standards of living often comes at the risks of environmental damage caused by economic processes. Population growth adds to such pressure by increasing the total economic demand. Climate change is likely to amplify existing risks and to create new risks for human health, food security and other societal conditions.

To achieve sustainable patterns of consumption and production, it is important to recognize that plausible future trajectories of the world population lie within a relatively narrow range, especially in the short or medium term. Efforts to limit climate change will therefore depend largely on the scope and effectiveness of measures to decouple economic activities from carbon dioxide emissions.

From 25 to 29 April 2022, the Commission on Population and Development will debate the progress, gaps, challenges and evolving issues in implementing the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) with a particular focus on Chapter III (Interrelationships Between Population, Sustained Economic Growth, and Sustainable Development). The session will also discuss the 2030 Agenda. The annual theme of the Commission will be “Population and sustainable development, in particular sustained and inclusive economic growth”.

For more information: Commission on Population and Development